opinionPolish missile disaster is sharp reminder of menace posed by Russia’s invasionJohn IbbitsonNovember 16, 2022

For a number of hours Tuesday night, tensions soared all over the world as phrase arrived that two folks in Poland had been killed by a missile strike and that the missile might have come from Russia.

Poland’s national-security committee met in emergency session. NATO leaders conferred urgently in Europe, North America and at G20 conferences that had been below manner in Bali, Indonesia.

Polish officers introduced that their nation may invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which might have led to consultations amongst members a few doable menace to the alliance. Baltic states declared their agency solidarity with their Polish allies.

Later within the night, Jap Time, we realized that the missile was most likely not Russian. Wednesday, the Polish authorities confirmed {that a} Ukrainian air-defence missile had gone astray. No want for extra emergency conferences. No want for Article 4. Keep on.

Besides we will’t simply stick with it. Tuesday’s temporary disaster reminds us that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put all our lives in danger.

“We’re clearly within the worst disaster because the Cuban Missile Disaster,” mentioned Elliot Tepper, a professor of worldwide relations at Carleton College.

However there are two variations: The 1962 confrontation between the USA and the Soviet Union, which introduced the world to the brink of nuclear battle, lasted days. This disaster has lasted months, with many extra months to come back.

And as Prof. Tepper noticed, the Kennedy administration discovered a option to let Soviet chief Nikita Khrushchev retreat whereas saving face. (The Soviets agreed to take away nuclear missiles from Cuba, as the USA demanded; the Individuals in flip eliminated missiles from Turkey.)

However Russian President Vladimir Putin “is much extra reckless,” mentioned Prof. Tepper. “We see no off-ramp for him. Both he wins or he loses.”

This leaves us all one miscalculation away from Armageddon. That’s the actual lesson from Tuesday’s temporary emergency.

When phrase of the missile strike first arrived, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky instantly assumed the worst.

“To fireside missiles at NATO territory!” he acknowledged on the social-media web site Telegram. “It is a Russian missile assault on collective safety! It is a very important escalation. We should act.”

Fortunately, we didn’t.

Mr. Zelensky has each purpose to hope that NATO might be drawn into the Russo-Ukrainian battle. NATO has each purpose to not be drawn in.

Nobody in NATO is blaming Ukraine for the unintended strike, which was the results of Ukrainian efforts to defend towards a Russian missile assault. As a result of it launched that assault, Russia, not Ukraine, is accountable for the deaths in Poland.

But when NATO turns into instantly concerned on this battle, the danger of a nuclear change rises exponentially, which is why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.S. President Joe Biden and different NATO leaders reacted with warning, when phrase arrived of the explosion in Poland.

Canada is deeply concerned on this disaster. Hundreds of displaced Ukrainians have come to this nation; Canadians Forces have helped practice Ukrainian troops. Earlier this week, Mr. Trudeau promised an extra $500-million in help to Ukraine. And naturally, this nation is a founding member of NATO.

To its credit score, the Trudeau authorities delivered a measured response Tuesday night time: providing Poland full assist because it carried out its investigation, whereas avoiding any rush to judgment. Mr. Biden took the same line, earlier than delivering the information that the missile most likely didn’t come from Russia.

Prof. Tepper believes that the almost definitely end result of Tuesday’s temporary emergency is that the USA and different Western international locations will lastly supply Ukraine the type of superior air defences it has been asking for because the disaster started. Which will or could not enhance the potential of miscalculation and escalation.

However this a lot we all know for positive: Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was not solely an evil act, it was an act of unparalleled irresponsibility. Tens of 1000’s of Ukrainians and Russians have been killed consequently.

And because the explosions in Poland remind us, at any second issues might get a lot, a lot worse.